The Canadian economy surprised many in 2025.
After years of volatility, higher rates, and global uncertainty, the slowdown everyone braced for never fully arrived. Growth held up better than expected. But that resilience wasn’t evenly distributed across the country. The story of Canada’s economy right now is not one of uniform recovery—it’s one of regional divergence.
And Alberta sits firmly on the stronger side of that divide.
While some provinces were more exposed to U.S. trade policy headwinds, resource-rich economies like Alberta and Saskatchewan led the country in growth. That leadership position isn’t a short-term anomaly. Current forecasts suggest it will continue over the next two years, reinforcing Alberta’s role as one of Canada’s most economically resilient provinces.
That strength, however, comes with nuance.
There is meaningful upside potential for Alberta, particularly following recent pullbacks in regulatory policy that could unlock longer-term investment. But the benefits of rising energy investment are not expected to materialize meaningfully in 2026. A weaker energy price environment tempers near-term momentum, even as structural advantages remain intact.
In the meantime, Alberta’s growth story is broadening.
Investment continues to flow into petrochemicals, hydrogen, food processing, technology, critical minerals, and aviation. This diversification matters. It reduces reliance on any single commodity cycle and supports more stable employment and capital formation over time. For Calgary, this translates into a more layered economic base—one that supports housing demand, commercial activity, and investor confidence even when energy prices fluctuate.
Relative affordability remains one of Alberta’s most compelling advantages. Compared to other major Canadian markets, Calgary continues to offer value across housing types. That affordability has driven strong migration over the past several years. But that trend is expected to cool.
As unemployment rates remain elevated and cost-of-living pressures linger, migration into Calgary is likely to slow, not reverse. This distinction is important. A slower pace of population growth reduces pressure without eliminating demand. It points to a more balanced real estate environment—less frenzy, more selectivity.
Inflation returning to target levels adds another layer of stability. With price pressures easing, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to be done cutting rates in 2026. While rate relief helped restore affordability at the margins, the reality is that previous increases in the cost of living continue to weigh on consumers. Household budgets remain tight. Decision-making is more deliberate.
For real estate buyers, sellers, and investors in Calgary, this environment rewards realism.
This is not a boom narrative. It’s a relative strength narrative. Alberta isn’t immune to global pressures, but it is better positioned to absorb them. Growth exists, but it’s uneven. Opportunity exists, but it’s selective.
For buyers, that means focusing on fundamentals—location, price band, and long-term livability. For sellers, it means accurate pricing and strong positioning matter more than ever. For investors, it means aligning with sectors and property types supported by Alberta’s evolving economic base, not just short-term momentum.
The takeaway is simple: Alberta doesn’t need everything to go right to perform well. It just needs fewer things to go wrong than elsewhere.
And in a country facing uneven recovery, that relative advantage continues to shape Calgary’s real estate landscape—quietly, steadily, and with far more nuance than the headlines suggest.
