The big question on everyone’s mind: is the market headed for a crash or a correction in Calgary?
With easing prices, climbing inventory and buyers on the sidelines, it’s easy to assume the worst—but the truth is more hopeful.
1. Current Market Snapshot
In September, just over 1,700 homes sold in Calgary, while nearly 3,800 new listings hit the market. That pushed inventory to almost 7,000 homes—about 36% higher than last year, and roughly 17% above the usual volume for September. Months of supply rose to four months—the first time we’ve seen that since early 2020.
The benchmark price across the city landed at $572,800, down about 4% year-over-year. Apartments lead the decline: the benchmark for that segment is around $322,900, down ~6%. Townhouses sit at $437,100, about 5% lower than last year. Duplexes remain stable around $684,800, and detached homes remain the strongest segment at $749,900, only 1% below last year.
2. What the Layers Reveal
Instead of seeing a single “market”, think of a layered market:
Lower-density, higher-risk segments (apartments, townhouses) are showing the most softness.
Mid-density (duplex) is holding its ground.
Detached homes are still the strongest, showing minimal decline.
That layering matters because it creates opportunity especially in the softer segments. Buying today in the adjusted price bands gives built-in protection—especially for apartments or townhouses—because you’re not paying peak prices in a segment that has always been more volatile.
3. Why This Looks Like a Correction (Not a Crash)
A crash typically means a 20–50% drop and takes years to recover. A correction is smaller—10–20% pull-back over 12-18 months before stabilising and recovering. Historically in Calgary:
In 2008 prices fell about 14% and recovered in ~2 years.
In the 2014 oil-drop cycle, prices slipped ~10% over several years.
Since peaking in June 2024, we’re down roughly 10%. That signals a correction, not a crash.
Economists are suggesting prices may drift into the mid–$500,000’s (for detached homes) before levelling off. But here’s the catch: you only know where the bottom was when it’s already behind you. Waiting too long risks buying on the upswing, not the dip.
4. Rates, Economy & Local Influences
The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate in September to 2.5% and markets expect one or two more cuts by year-end. Since U.S. policy flows into Canadian mortgage rates, trends at the Federal Reserve matter too. In Alberta, migration and relative affordability keep the province in stronger shape than many others—even if the job market is slightly softer year-over-year.
Local factors to watch:
A teacher strike province-wide starting October may disrupt moving timelines and showings.
On October 20, Calgarians elect a new mayor and council; zoning, permits, tax policy and transit funding all feed into real estate confidence.
5. Advice for Sellers
This is not the time to go with the lowest-commission, “easy-list” broker. In a slower market, how well you market your home matters more than ever. The right realtor has systems, full-time marketing, and the ability to keep your property competitive so it doesn’t “sit”. That’s the difference between a listing that lingers and one that sells.
6. Advice for Buyers & Investors
For buyers: more choice, less competition, and slowly improving rates mean leverage is on your side. Focus on the right home at the right price, in the right location—and ensure it checks future resale boxes (layout, lot-backing, appeal).
For investors: apartments and townhouses may feel riskier short-term, but if you buy smart, put sufficient down payment, and hold long-term, they present a compelling entry point. Detached homes remain historically safer, but all real estate works best with a long-term mindset.
7. The Bottom Line: Opportunity in the Correction
Calgary is not in a crash—it’s in a correction. And corrections create opportunity. The message of the year has shifted from “uncertainty” to “opportunity”. Waiting too long for the perfect bottom could mean missing the right moment—and ending up paying more tomorrow.
If you’re ready to move with confidence—whether buying, selling or investing, let’s connect.
Want to explore the best neighbourhoods, prices, and strategies for Calgary’s current market? Reach out—I’m here to guide you.
