Calgary surprised a lot of people in 2025.
Employment growth came in stronger than expected, averaging roughly four per cent for the year. In a national economy still digesting higher rates, trade uncertainty, and uneven growth, that headline number matters. But as always in real estate, the story lives beneath the surface.
Job losses did occur, particularly in accommodation and food services, followed by manufacturing and certain business services. These were not random losses. They reflected pressure on discretionary spending, higher input costs, and shifting demand patterns. At the same time, job growth surged in healthcare and social assistance, with additional strength in real estate, retail, government, and—more notably than forecast—professional and knowledge-based roles.
That last point is important.
Professional job growth exceeding expectations tells us something structural is happening. Calgary’s economy continues to diversify, and higher-skilled employment is becoming a larger share of the mix. This supports long-term housing demand, especially in established communities, family-oriented neighbourhoods, and inner-city markets attractive to professionals.
However, strong employment growth didn’t translate into falling unemployment.
Why? Population growth.
Recent migration swelled Calgary’s labour force faster than jobs could be created. As a result, unemployment remained elevated, even during a year of solid hiring. That imbalance is expected to persist into 2026. Employment growth is forecast to slow as public administration and manufacturing face pressure, offsetting gains elsewhere. Migration is also expected to cool, but not enough to materially tighten the labour market.
For housing, this creates a very specific dynamic.
Previous employment gains should support typical levels of housing demand in 2026. But without a new leg of job growth, the market lacks fuel for another sharp acceleration in sales. This is not a collapse scenario. It’s a normalization phase.
For buyers, that means more time, more choice, and more negotiating power than we’ve seen in recent years. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing, presentation, and strategy. For investors, it’s a reminder that cash flow, tenant quality, and location matter more than momentum.
Calgary’s housing market in 2026 won’t be driven by hype. It will be driven by fundamentals.
And understanding those fundamentals—employment, migration, and sectoral shifts—is what turns uncertainty into leverage.
If you’re unsure what to buy, sell, or hold in this phase of the cycle, clarity starts with context. And context is exactly where opportunity lives.
