For the past few years, population growth has been the quiet engine behind Calgary’s housing market.
From 2022 through 2024, strong migration flows—both international and interprovincial—pushed demand well beyond what local housing supply could absorb. The result was familiar: tightening inventory, upward price pressure, and competition spilling across nearly every segment of the market.
That chapter is now closing.
Updated estimates from 2025 show that migration into Alberta slowed more sharply than expected, and as we move into 2026, that easing is projected to continue. Fewer international migrants are being admitted nationally. A growing share of temporary residents are leaving. Interprovincial migration is also expected to cool as employment gains in Calgary soften and unemployment remains elevated.
This isn’t a reversal—but it is a recalibration.
Lower migration levels are arriving at the same time that housing supply is finally rising. New listings, new completions, and deferred projects reaching the market are changing the balance. Together, these forces are expected to weigh on Calgary’s housing market in 2026, particularly in segments that benefited most from population-driven urgency.
It’s important to be clear about what this is not.
This is not a return to the pre-pandemic era when Alberta consistently lost people to other provinces. Net migration is still positive. People are still choosing Calgary for affordability, lifestyle, and opportunity. But demand is slowing back toward long-term historical norms, rather than running ahead of them.
For buyers, this shift creates breathing room. Less pressure, more choice, and a market that rewards patience and selectivity.
For sellers, it raises the bar. Pricing strategy, presentation, and understanding your buyer pool matter more when demand is no longer guaranteed.
For investors, the message is structural, not cyclical. Markets driven by fundamentals—employment, livability, and long-term population trends—outperform those driven purely by momentum.
Calgary isn’t losing its appeal. It’s losing its excess.
And in real estate, that’s often when the clearest opportunities emerge—if you know how to read the shift.
If you’re unsure what to buy, sell, or hold as the market resets, clarity starts with understanding why demand is changing, not just that it is. And that clarity is what turns uncertainty into leverage.
