For the past few years, Calgary’s rental market felt unstoppable. Tight vacancies. Rapid rent growth. Purpose-built rental projects launching at record speed. It all made sense at the time.
International migration surged, vacancies dropped, and rental rates climbed fast. Builders responded the only way markets know how, by building. Purpose-built rental construction accelerated, reaching historic highs as developers raced to meet demand.
But markets don’t move in straight lines.
As we look ahead to 2026, the backdrop is changing. International migration into Calgary is slowing, with forecasts showing 8,032 international migrants in 2026. That pullback is happening just as a wave of new rental supply is arriving. Units that were planned, financed, and built during peak demand are now coming online in a very different environment.
The result? Rising vacancy rates and downward pressure on asking rents.
There are still over 11,801 purpose-built rental units under construction across the city, scheduled to be completed over the next several years. With lower migration levels expected to persist, it will take longer for this added supply to be absorbed. That imbalance is likely to keep vacancy rates elevated throughout 2026 and weigh further on rental pricing.
For renters, this shift creates choice and negotiating power. For investors, it demands precision. Not all rental assets will perform the same way. Product type, location, tenant profile, and long-term holding strategy matter more now than they have in years.
For buyers and sellers watching from the sidelines, this is a reminder that Calgary’s real estate market is entering a more nuanced phase. The easy wins are gone. The smart moves remain.
The opportunities in 2026 won’t come from following last year’s headlines. They’ll come from understanding supply cycles, migration trends, and where pressure is building, or releasing, across the city.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in Calgary real estate and aren’t sure what to do next, this is exactly the kind of market where informed strategy separates hesitation from confidence.
