On the surface, 2025 looked like a year of cooling energy markets. Dig a little deeper, and the picture becomes far more complex—and far more instructive for anyone watching Calgary real estate.
Oil prices declined through much of 2025, not because demand collapsed, but because global production rose faster than consumption. Inventories built. Supply outpaced urgency. Brent crude has averaged close to US$60 per barrel in recent months, even after a modest uptick tied to geopolitical tensions. That level sits below the US$65 assumption used in earlier forecasts, and it matters for Alberta.
Lower oil prices tend to cool near-term energy investment, and that restraint is already showing up. While Alberta remains one of Canada’s growth leaders, the next leg of energy-driven capital spending is unlikely to arrive in 2026, especially in a weaker pricing environment. For real estate, this signals moderation—not retreat.
But energy isn’t the whole story.
Natural gas prices have surged, driven by unusually high heating demand. That divergence matters. Alberta’s energy economy isn’t monolithic, and gas strength continues to support infrastructure, employment, and investment in ways oil alone does not capture.
Beyond energy, commodity markets are quietly tightening.
The Bank of Canada’s non-energy commodity price index has risen since October, supported by higher base-metal prices amid constrained supply. Gold and silver have also climbed, reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty and investors seeking protection rather than growth. Even cattle prices remain elevated, feeding directly into higher food costs and inflation sensitivity across households.
This mix tells us something important.
Alberta’s economy is no longer riding a single commodity wave. It’s increasingly diversified across energy, metals, agriculture, and industrial inputs, each responding to different global pressures. That diversification adds resilience—but it also removes the explosive upside that once came from oil alone.
For Calgary real estate buyers and investors, this environment rewards precision over prediction. Broad booms are unlikely. So are sharp busts. Instead, capital will flow selectively—toward assets aligned with infrastructure, logistics, food processing, petrochemicals, and industries tied to long-term demand rather than short-term price spikes.
In markets like this, the signal isn’t in the headline price of oil.
It’s in the cross-currents of commodities, costs, and capital, and how they quietly shape employment, migration, and housing demand.
That’s where real estate decisions are made now—not in extremes, but in structure.
