If I came home with a report card showing a solid B average, I might feel pretty good about myself. My mom, however, would’ve had a different take: you could’ve done better. That tension between “good” and “could be great” is exactly how to read the International Monetary Fund’s latest global outlook—and it matters more for real estate than most people realize.
The IMF now projects global economic growth of 3.3% this year, up from its October forecast of 3.1%, followed by 3.2% growth in 2027. On the surface, those numbers are reassuring. Considering the drag from U.S. trade policy and lingering geopolitical friction, this is a resilient outcome. Back in April 2025, when tariffs looked far more aggressive, the IMF expected just 3.0% growth in 2026. In that context, today’s outlook feels like progress.
But it’s also underwhelming.
Strip away the trade headwinds, and the global economy could be running much hotter. The IMF is clear on this point: there are powerful tailwinds from surging investment in technology, particularly artificial intelligence, that should be lifting growth more decisively. In other words, we’re excelling in innovation and productivity potential—but stumbling in coordination, trade, and policy predictability.
The IMF describes the risks to the outlook as “tilted to the downside,” citing four key concerns. First, the AI boom itself could cool quickly if expectations outrun fundamentals. Second, trade tensions could re-escalate. Third, geopolitical shocks remain a constant wildcard. And finally, high public debt and widening fiscal deficits could tighten financial conditions faster than anticipated.
There is, however, a meaningful upside scenario. Rapid and broad adoption of AI—supported by real investment in both physical and digital infrastructure—could boost productivity sooner and more forcefully than expected. Progress on trade negotiations could also lower tariffs, improve predictability, and unlock efficiency gains that are currently being suppressed.
So why does this matter for Calgary real estate buyers, sellers, and investors?
Because this is the definition of a selective growth environment. We are not heading into a synchronized global boom, nor are we sliding into recession. We’re operating in a world where growth exists, but it’s uneven, conditional, and increasingly tied to where capital can actually function efficiently.
For Calgary, that reinforces a few realities. Capital is cautious, not frozen. Buyers are analytical, not emotional. Assets with clear utility, income durability, and alignment with long-term economic themes—energy transition, infrastructure, technology, and housing fundamentals—are better positioned than speculative plays that rely on momentum alone.
This is not a market that rewards passive optimism. It rewards strategy.
The IMF’s outlook tells us we’re doing “pretty good,” but also reminds us that unrealized potential carries opportunity—and risk. In real estate, the winners over the next cycle won’t be those waiting for perfect conditions. They’ll be the ones who understand the forces at play, price risk correctly, and act with intention.
In a B-average world, clarity becomes the difference between settling and outperforming.
