After years of volatility, the most important signal from the Bank of Canada right now isn’t movement. It’s a restraint.
Our view remains that the Bank will keep its finger firmly on the pause button through 2026. That position isn’t ideological, it’s data-driven. The Bank has made it clear that future decisions will hinge on whether economic growth and inflation continue to evolve broadly in line with its forecasts. Until the data forces a change, stability is the base case.
The next fixed announcement date is March 18, and markets will be watching closely. Not for dramatic cuts, but for confirmation.
The key takeaway is this: the big cuts are behind us. In our current view, Canada is now sitting at or near the bottom of the rate-cutting cycle. That matters because expectations often lag reality. Many buyers and sellers are still waiting for relief that has largely already occurred.
Meanwhile, the bond market is quietly telling its own story.
The yield curve has been normalizing, with the five-year Government of Canada yield holding just below 3% since the start of the year, and the ten-year hovering around 3.4%. That’s not a market anticipating panic. It’s a market pricing in moderation and predictability.
After several years of sharp swings in short-term rates, this may all feel a little… boring.
But boring is good.
For households planning moves, buying, selling, refinancing, or investing, rate stability is far more valuable than volatility. It allows for realistic budgeting, clearer pricing, and long-term planning without the fear that the ground will shift again in six months. For businesses, it supports investment decisions that require confidence rather than speculation.
In real estate markets like Calgary, this matters deeply. Stability doesn’t create urgency, but it does create clarity. And clarity is what allows buyers to move forward deliberately, sellers to price accurately, and investors to focus on fundamentals instead of macro noise.
Given the current state of global affairs, there are already enough variables to manage. Interest rates don’t need to be another source of stress.
What comes next likely isn’t dramatic.
It’s directional, measured, and data-dependent.
And in a market emerging from years of extremes, that’s not a weakness, it’s a foundation.
